By Michael Carter
The idea that we forge ahead introducing new products with less than adequate information could be considered an attitude crisis. I’ve put some information together and added a few comments. The article is divided three parts. First is a loose definition of what longitudinal and cross-sectional refer to. This is followed by a case study, using Reservatrol as a model. Finally, I give some general thoughts about the way we, as a society, function.
Two types of studies
Formal studies fall into two broad categories, cross-sectional and longitudinal. An example of a cross-section study would be the random selection of 100 men and women of varying ages (a very small group for a study). We might then compare habits, movie-going behavior maybe. How many women attend once a week or more, what genre those in their twenties see most often, and so forth. We would then study the results, in this illustration, by age group (20-30 years of age, 31 to 40 years of age, etc.) and gender. The more such random groups selected and tested, the higher the probability that the conclusions drawn from the test would be accurate.
The second study type is longitudinal. As the name implies, the study takes place over an extended time. Say we want to know the effect of the intake of a certain daily portion of fruit on weight loss. In this case, we would define “portion,” take a randomly selected sample of similar subjects (men who are overweight by 30 pounds), and “apply” an extra portion of fruit daily to one group, We would track weights over a period of months or more. You’re thinking, yes, but what about the other factors like exercise or sleep patterns? And you’re correct, we could only draw very general conclusions at best, but a pattern would be indicated. “More studies would be conducted,” as they say. This is an unscientific example only to illustrate what the term “longitudinal” refers to.
So, which study type is better? Both have a place, as loosely demonstrated above. Ok, that’s out of the way, now what’s my point? It concerns the idea of longitudinal and the latitude of its implications. I could use the word “scope” just as well, but “latitude” is more poetic. The thing about longitude, and text books cover this, is that people and attitudes change over a period of years. We might even go way out and ask if our social thinking is more cross-sectional or longitudinal. How about that one! When a longitudinal study is conducted, one factor concerns the how people see movies as having any importance in their lives. Why would 60-year-olds begin to attend more and more Disney movies? Probably because they are taking their grandkids to them and not as a result of getting Mickey-Mouse religion.
Another way to view longitude would be from the way we think. I’m sure pop psychology quizzes exist to determine whether we’re a “Lo” or a “La.” Or are we a Lola? Lola is not allowed here. Such a consideration would boil down to this. Are we more concerned about what others are doing across our society or about th
e implications of our actions for the future. Make me a Lo. Maybe it comes with maturity (couldn’t bear using “age”), the tendency to be philosophical about the long haul. After all, we have been on one long journey haven’t we, hauling relationships, hauling financial conditions, and hauling hopes and re-alignment of hopes, for decades.
A Case Study
One group particularly concerned with longitude are pharmaceutical companies. It’s a necessity to see the effects of new drugs and what can loosely call “foods” on the population. Unfortunately “population” doesn’t include out pets but that’s covered in another post (see Pet Foods — More and Less). Now we come to a relatively new product, the miracle, anti-aging Resveratrol. Here is an unscientific but enlightening case study.
The hype: Resveratrol is the new miracle ingredient for anti-aging, anti-cancer, and prevention of obesity. It comes from the skin of grapes. It is found in red wine but in small amounts. In large quantities resveratrol has been linked to weight loss, health, and anti-aging. People have experienced a 23% raise of anti-aging factor (measured by SIRT 1 Protein levels) while losing more than 12 lbs in just one week. And energy levels increase as well. Now, read this:
[from 1999: Grape Expectations: The Resveratrol Story -- Melissa Q.B. McElderry, M.S., R.D. at http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/DSH/resveratrol.html]Laboratory tests have clearly demonstrated that resveratrol may help prevent cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, there are several reasons why recommending a population-wide increase would be premature.
That from 1999. Jump to 2008, that’s nine years later.
Dr. Oz revealed to Oprah the health secrets of Resveratrol, the anti-aging ingredient in red wine. Nearly everyone has been scrambling to get their hands on these longevity supplements. Dr. Oz reports that taking Resveratrol regularly could add 20 or more years onto your life. National Institute on Aging and also at Oregon State University have found that Resveratrol, a natural compound found in the skin of red grapes and hence in red wine, can counter the effects of a high-fat diet and even may prolong life. Resveratrol has recently pulled a tremendous splotlight in the media such as the Oprah Winfrey Show, Barbara Walters in ABC news, and 60 minutes.
Again, that’s nine years, a third of a generation, after the warning by doctor McElderry. And that hubbub notwithstanding information such as this from the Wikipedia from the early to mid-2000’s:
While the health benefits of resveratrol seem promising, one study has theorized that it may stimulate the growth of human breas
t cancer cells, possibly because of resveratrol’s chemical structure … However, other studies have found that resveratrol actually fights breast cancer. Some studies suggest that resveratrol slows the development of blood vessels, which suppresses tumors, but also slows healing … some retailers of resveratrol advise that the compound may interfere with oral contraceptives and that women who are pregnant or intending to become pregnant should not use the product, while others advise that resveratrol should not be taken by children or young adults under eighteen, as no studies have shown how it affects their natural development. A small study found that a single dose of up to 5 g of trans-resveratrol caused no serious adverse effects in healthy volunteers.
Some thoughts
A couple things bother me here. Obviously, and that with a big “O,” the fact that, as usual it seems these days, these last few decade days, the rush to judgment has enabled another fully-untested product to enter the mainstream. And, with all the beautiful promises Resveratrol makes, it has become a superstar on “60 Minutes,” “Oprah,” and all the major news networks. The latitude of longitudinal studies has fallen short and no one cares. It’s the kind of mob mentality that leads to bad presidents being elected, minorities being hung, and gas guzzling cars entering the market, all in the name of what the people want.
But, the theme of this article centers on the attitude which allows the wild ride to take place. A nearly unknown, and not especially well-done, documentary called “No Maps for These Territories” describes this syndrome. The film involves an interview with author William Gibson. Now, you might not know the title nor even the author, but are you familiar with the terms “matrix,” “sprawl,” and “cyberspace”? Gibson coined them, the latter in a short story called “Burning Chrome” back in 1986. What he says in the interview should reverberate like a toll bell, that we are rushing as fast as we can into newer and newer technology with utterly no concept of where we are headed.
We have, in the terms used here, no latitude to our longitude, no sense of what the future will bring. No plan. We’re like kids in an incredibly high tech superstore in the middle of the night, when the managers are sound asleep, pushing every button in sight and watching as the gadgetry vibrates into non-living movement.
We plunder the short term future with barely a nod to consequence. We have turned the old phrase “the end justifies the means” into making the means its own justification. Drugs that stop or even reverse aging? Absolutely. We seem to be living not decade by decade but year by year. And the shorter the time span from testing to release of the 10,000 new drugs patented each year, the more genetically ignorant we show ourselves to be; the more dangerous, in a real sense, our tinkering becomes.
If a longitudinal study had been conducted from t
he 1950’s when I grew up, till now, it would encompass about two generations, or a little more. What, I wonder, will show up down the human path in another sixty or seventy years, in another two or three generations? And there is the dilemma. It’s like the world weather where a change on one continent affects the weather on cities thousands of miles away. Or, as we used to say about LSD, anything that strong has to have some permanent affect on the brain. Yes, indeed. The human body isn’t an erector set where we can remove a part here and there or plug in a small beam as a prop. Instead of tinkering with heavy duty mechanisms, well, could we perhaps move a wee bit more cautiously? The other horn of the dilemma says no. If we have a miracle drug that works, use it. Common sense dictates caution, but who needs common sense when we can eliminate wrinkles.
About the Author
Mike lives in Florida as a retired high school English teacher. He devotes most of his time working on his websites and writing on Artist's Inlet Press. This becomes a marriage of productivity and convenience because Florida summers tend to keep people inside away from the heat. His writing output tends toward social criticism. Mike's hero is Jack Kerouac.
Website: http://www.artistsinlet.com/wordpress/.
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